Critical Event Categories

The following is an excerpt from my non-fiction book Suburban Defense. These are critical event categories which examine and catalog the progression of civil disorder. While they focus on violence, the loss of law and order, and the response to it, variations of this chapter can be used for different levels of disasters.

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1. Small scale, localized, and unorganized incidents of temporary duration

Small scale acts of vandalism and violence often done in revenge or to further antagonize, that is not stopped by police usually because of politics.

Characteristics

• These incidents occur in residential neighborhoods, either targeted or as a spontaneous spillover from another location. This may be a reaction to police dispersal from another area.
• Mob participants are mostly protesters there to demonstrate verbally and with signs.
  
• Front and unfenced yards are trespassed on, but no entry is made to homes.
• Homes are targeted for repeated doorbell ringing, banging on doors and windows, or surrounded for verbal intimidation.
• Destruction is limited generally to minor vandalism and trampling of landscaping. Broken windows may happen in some incidents, but not as an attempt to enter the home.
• Police are monitoring or following the crowd, but not intervening to disperse the crowd or make arrests.
• The incident usually ends when the mob finishes moving through the area or it self-disperses within a few hours at most.
• Traffic is usually blocked from leaving the area by the size of the crowd or by active intervention from participants.
  

2. A temporary and localized loss of civil order that is beyond the ability of police to stop but are able to contain.

Characteristics

• The unrest during these incidents are geographically isolated, even though the troublesome areas may be widespread or occurring sympathetically in cities across the state/nation.
• Areas in the closest proximity to riots are at highest risk, usually economically disadvantaged areas with high minority populations (the ghetto).
• Suburban areas and adjoining communities far from the unrest are usually unaffected.
• These events usually start in response to a specific event, but the catalyst that starts the riots is incidental to the follow-on effects of lawlessness.
• Violence can be specifically targeted against political opponents, other races, upper classes, etc.
• As violence spirals out of control, the atmosphere is used as a license to burn, loot, rob, beat, destroy, and so on, with little relation to the initiating event.
• Police are often powerless to control the riots or protect the public; sometimes this is because of political decisions at the city/state level.
• The riots continue for several days until law enforcement and the National Guard are able to get a handle on the situation (weather changes have also been a cause for riots to fizzle out).
• The rule of law is still in effect, even if it isn’t being enforced to stop the riots. If you break the law, especially if it is an egregious overreaction or politically unpopular, expect to be prosecuted. Conduct yourself to the legal standards as you would every single day of normal life.
  

3. A widespread loss of civil order where evildoers are often not stopped by authorities, but prosecution may come after-the fact.

Characteristics

• These events are usually in combination with a natural disaster. They could be the beginning stages of a total collapse type situation depending on what is happening nationally.
• The area of the event is widespread across a major metropolitan area, a region, multiple states, or even the entire nation.
• There is usually a failure of the supply chain (stores are closed/empty) and utilities may be interrupted.
• Duration of the event is from several weeks to months. Law-and-order, utilities, and municipal governance are eventually restored. Life returns to normal.
• For all practical purposes, law enforcement is totally absent. Police cannot be relied upon for proactive protection (deterrence) or emergency response.
  • Citizens must protect themselves from attack and theft as well as serve as their own deterrent to crime.
  • Police will not be able to accept citizen’s arrests.
  • Any law enforcement activity is likely to be a sporadic, unhelpful appearance where the officers are unable to do anything.
  • Law enforcement may be actively hostile against armed/proactive citizens.
  • Criminals will take advantage of absent policing to engage in overt criminal activity. Expect greater threats, more aggressive criminals, and persons who wouldn’t ordinarily break the law to commit crimes.
• The personal safety threat shifts from large, rioting mobs or hyper-specific incidents against individuals or their homes/businesses to pervasive and random attacks, usually of opportunity or on soft targets.
• Burglaries, home invasions, robberies, carjacking, looting, theft, and assaults occur at a higher rate than before and outside of traditionally “bad” neighborhoods.
• Your defensive posture will shift from manning a barricade and fronting off a mob (short duration) to patrolling and being alert for surreptitious or aggressive burglaries, home invasions, etc.
• Persons from all walks of life and responsibilities behave abnormally; from failure of those in positions of responsibility to take charge to your fellow citizens behaving irrationally.
• You may feel tempted yourself to behave in extreme ways, such as shooting a non-violent looter, but such action is not appropriate nor justified.
• It seems like civilization has stepped out of the room for a moment.

4. WROL: The absence of government authority and a reversion to an uncivilized world (i.e. survival of the fittest).

Characteristics

• The situation is marked by total disorganization and disintegration of the normal social order caused by disaster or war.
• For all intents and purposes, civilized society is non-existent.
• Ordinary commercial, private, and government services are out of business. Often utilities, transportation, and communications have been interrupted.
• Day-to-day life is a survival situation where the final outcome has a high probability of death.
• The situation is regional, with very limited chances of escape, or even statewide or national.
• Local intervention is not possible; i.e. the National Guard isn’t coming to save you. In fact, no one is coming to save you. If you are very lucky, in the late stages aid organizations like the Red Cross may come in, but then it will be too late for many people.
• Morality will go out the window for many people and horrific things will be done, such as cannibalism. Killing will be among the first answers to interpersonal difficulties and criminality. Predators will exploit the situation for their gain or to satisfy their perversions.
• Obtaining food, water, and medical care will be impossible, very expensive, or extremely difficult.
• Power will be exercised by force and not necessarily by police, the military, or good guys. Citizens pledge support to whoever can take over and provide safety, supplies, or just won’t hurt them.

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Read the book for more information in each category along with defensive postures, checklists, and tactics.